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Mexico will only learn fate after April a fool’s day. Donald Trump called “Freedom Day” April 2. For Mexicans, the moment of the economic damage planned to strike in the countries of Trump will be the moment they discover.
Most of the global economy will probably be shot by American tariffs to announce on April 2. However, the stakes are especially high for Mexico, which sent 80 percent of its export to the United States. Trump applied a 25 percent tariff in both Canada and Mexico. About half of these new tasks were fast. But all this can come together next week.
The fate of Mexico is worth looking at two main reasons. First, the unusual dependence of the economy from exports to the United States says the public and political stability of Mexico is in danger. Mexican economists believe that the worst case will lead to a depression in the countries of Trump’s tariffs.
The second reason is that the Mexican offers a test work to treat Trump. When Canada returns to the United States with harsh talks and mutual tariffs, Mexican President Claudia Sheenbaum played fine. He stressed the respect for Trump and now he refused to apply the retaliatory tariffs. Sheenbaum deported 10,000 more troops to protect the US-Mexican border and deported 29 high-profile drug cartel leaders in America.
Sheinbaum was awarded a trump that called “a beautiful woman”. The sky-high opinion is also enjoying the query ratings at home. International, he was caught as an example of how to treat his pragmatism and economists with the New York Times welcoming the “Diplomatic Nou”.
The reality is more complicated. Louis de la Calle, a leading trading economist last week, took me last week in Mexico, Canada and Mexico were treated very well in the same way by the Trump management so far. Sheenbaum’s critics also say that the country has made a Mexican economy and future investment with the plan to fire and replace the judges with selected officials.
With the local economy, Sheenbaum, who is already fighting, needs a bad need to break it. Unfortunately, Trump’s complaints for Mexico are going well outside trade.
Last month, the White House claimed: “Mexican drug trafficking organizations have an unbearable alliance with the Mexican government.” Joshua Treviño of Trump America’s First Policy Institute commentary By approval, this statement was a “seismic annual” with a new period of new clashes among the two people.
There is a serious controversy in the Republican circles that the United States does not use military force to hit drug cartels in Mexico. This month, defensive priorities warned another thought tank that is effective in the world of Trump: “Bomb Mexico ‘is increasingly basic as a policy choice for border security.” Some prestigious Mexicans will silently say that if the Trump management takes more aggressive measures against drug gangs, it may not be such a bad thing, if it is pushed by important American assistance.
The horrible discovery of the destruction camp in the village, which was abducted in a criminal support to the Mexican Society of Cartels, was found to be terrible in Mexico. Many of the cartels were afraid of cartels in Mexico.
However, unilateral American military servicemen hit cartels – they will be applauding the base of the Trump, and the Mexican government will put in an impossible situation. The United States would comply with another open confrontation without attacking the root causes of the problem with Mexico and America’s medicinal weapons.
It was more difficult for tariffs to deal with drugs, illegal immigration and tradition of the same time, Trump was more difficult to prepare a reasoned response to Mexico. Thus, Sheenbaum is trying to humor and flatter the US president, distracted or hoped to see the reason for his consultants.
The reality is that the tariffs undermine the most advanced parts of the Mexican economy and the country is poor. This low spiral nationalism and anti-democratic populism, which increases the power of organized crime, and more Mexicans are likely to try to try to move to the United States.
The biggest hope of Mexico is that the United States itself will be withdrawn from the joint pain caused by the Tariff War. Americans trust cheap, reliable supply for everything from Fruits and Vegetables from Mexico to cars and vegetables. The higher inflation in the United States will be felt quickly, and the promised re-industrialization of America has been going on for a long time.
It is clearly a bad idea to check and stabilize the southern neighbor and the largest trading partner of America – for itself in the United States and Mexico. But, unfortunately, there is no guarantee that it will not happen.
gideon.rachman@ft.com
