What are they and when do they take place? : Npr

New tariffs from the countries imported from the countries import from the world countries have been voiced from countries imported, trade war, global markets and widespread concerns about the prospects of a recession in the world.

Google searches for the term “decay” in the days announced by President Trump’s sweeping base and “mutual” tariffs We made progress In the prominent investment banks, economists said that the growing possibility of a decline.

Sign up to customers on Sunday, Goldman Sachs raised the probability The United States thinks that the recession of 35% is 45% of the recession and tariffs. If the country’s special tariffs enter into force on Wednesday, the company says, “Let’s reconsider the forecast to include a recession.”

Last week, in the research statement called “Blood”, JP Morgan reduced the risk of global decline before the tariff announcement of up to 60%.

His CEO Jamie Dimon wrote on Monday, in him Annual letter Investors “likely to increase inflation” tariffs require “many of the recession, taking into account the probability of decline.”

“It will slow down the menu of the tariffs, but the growth will slow down,” Dimon said.

There are increased calls for Trump to delay or reduce future tariffs Sounds Wall Street, Capitol hill And in the world. Management Authorities said on Sunday He began to start negotiations from more than 50 countries – but also said that the desire of tariffs not postponed.

In an interview Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent with the “press match” of “press” on Sunday, lowers concerns about a recession, “We will hold a course.” Marking March to a better business report than expected, he said he saw “there was no reason in the recession”.

“It’s not to be a decline,” he said. “Who knows how the market will react in one day. The things we meet are building long-term economic bases for welfare.”

With all this conversation on a potential recession, the term is actually worth considering what it means – and decides when it is applied.

What is a recession?

A recession refers to the period of reducing economic activity. This is one of the four stages of the economic period: growth, summit, contraction (or decline) and trough.

Some analysts use rough rule To identify recipes: in the total domestic product of a nation (GDP) – two consecutive quarters with the widest amount of economic activity.

However, the National Economic Research Bureau of Economic Research – Non-profit research organization, which has become a semi-formal arbitrator – uses a slightly squishier definition. He calls a recession that a significant landing in the economy and a significant decline in economic activity that lasted more than a few months. “

Who declines the recession?

It does not fall to the federal government, including economic periods and recessions.

Instead of the Nber’s Working Cycle Dating Committee – Contains The best American economists – Since the day he was established in 1978, he declared the beginning and end of periods (Nber itself for ten years).

No stable rule is to determine a decline after Nberber starts down. This is said about its website Past appointments took everywhere for four to 21 months.

“We are waiting long enough until we can doubt that a peak or Nova will be doubtful and determine a precise peak or trough,” says ner.

For example, in June 2020, in February, the United States announced the official entry to the months of the PANDEMIC induced recession. Announced For more than a year In April 2020, he ended in April 2020, he said they said it for the shortest possible record.

What happens in a recession?

An economy, including low employment, low employment, and reducing higher debt costs for consumers and companies, which worsens and consumers and companies. According to loyalty.

For example, people do not want to spend a large number of, which contrast can affect the support, which can be fired, which can operate in the stock exchange.

Moody’s Analytics, Chief Economist Mark Zandi, last week, told NPR that consumer confidence and reasonable expenses are already reduced. He said that the desired day of the announced day may be the probability of being more extensive tariffs – a decline.

“First, this is the consumer who feels first and good reason,” he said. “But … Ways to go to the recession, see the weakening in sales and start to invest in employees, then we are done.”

How are the rare abilities?

Different factors may not turn out to a decline from unexpected events (such as pandemics and wars) to an extreme inflation or deflation.

In the event of 34 receptions since USA since 1857 Nber data.

They have changed significantly as much as two months (2020) (2020), more than five years 1873 panicwho launched the “long depression”).

Since World War II, the average length of the recession is 11.1 months Published Kiplinger. Our post-Wwii US has suffered a recession every 6.5 years.

The longest post-WWII recession was a great decline since June 2007, which lasted 18 months since June 2007, and the US housing bubble was exploded. The latest was the recess of the most recent Covid-19 in 2020. Economy did not burn the fear of a decline in two neighborhoods of negative GDP growth in early 2022.

Depressions are more heavier and rare: Merriam-Webster says they are It is characterized by key intervals in widespread unemployment and economic activity. Nber does not specify the depressions, but the United States says that the United States is generally one of the last experienced in the 1930s.