Leonardo Vieceli
Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Folhapress)
There is no silver bullets that can immediately reduce food prices in Brazil, researcher Leaver Agro Gili says Gilio.
According to the economist, the import rate of products such as meat, coffee, corn, corn and oils, sugar and oils announced by the Government of Lula (PT) will affect inflation due to the restrictions of competition in the international market.
What can help with the researcher can help, a researcher and a grain product. Predictions show the production record in 2025 after climate problems in 2025.
“But the low-level price of the products does not have a short prospect, because the products must be cultivated and delivered.
The meal inflation was one of the topics behind the enemy of President Lula, as a headache for the government.
Then, read the basic extracts from Gilio interview.
Question – The government said that the import rate of the food contained in inflation should be zero, but due to the lack of competitive suppliers of producers, the event said that the event will not have a major impact. What is your price?
Leandro Gilio – Food inflation is very heavy in the consumer pocket and the government should respond a little to society. Every day the government lost a popularity. One of the biggest reasons specified is the accurate food inflation.
This event will probably be almost a null effect of imaging). Brazil is already one of the largest manufacturers of some of these products. Sugar, coffee, corn is a great exporter. These foods produce with a very competitive value in the global market.
If we think about $ 6, where will it be found and what will the competit competition in our market? Thus, it is likely that it is a measure that will be a null effect based on the terms of inflation.
P – Predictions show a record grain product in the country in 2025. How can larger production affect food inflation?
LG – It is important to wait for product production. Climate can reduce excess product production. But so far nothing is meant to be very serious. Probably, we will have a good product this year, and it affects the prices of the food with a low trend.
Of course, some products are goods. They are not at the international price, not only the national price. However, a strong product helps reduce prices.
P – On the one hand, inflation has a government plan with a low impact forecast. On the other hand, the product brings the maintenance of prices. Looking together, what is the scenario for food inflation in the coming months? Has the worst pass?
LG – We do not have such a quick substitute for some products. For example, there was a large increase in meat prices and is entering a low production period.
So it’s not something that will be changed soon.
Coffee had a global production problem. There is no inclination to resolve prices in a short time.
In other products it can be as easy as corn and some more temporary plants. However, there is no short prospect of a low-precious price because the products are needed and delivery. There is no silver bullets in this area.
Many prices are high because they have increased production costs. Everything in which fertilizers, energy, fuel and food production are involved. Because it is a small margin of agricultural products, this is transferred to the consumer.
Another thing is the interest rate that affects production. Raises the cost to the manufacturer. All this is transferred to the consumer, as well as Brazilian logistics problems, including existing problems. In recent times, the transport value has increased.
In the macroeconomic conjuncture, we know that the government has a financial regulation problem, which affects inflation, including the government. It is a general price issue transferred to the meal.
P – You say that the low price is not low. How long is short-term?
LG – at least next three or four months, finally until the delivery of the next products.
P – Consab talks about the increase in grain reserves to try to contain inflation. Is there a measure of influence?
LG – very little. This has already been done in the past and has never achieved great results. It is usually a more expensive policy than some practical effects.
Other sometimes ventilated measures are risky as export tax. The effect is, in fact, the product in the global market is to reduce the competitiveness. The manufacturer is discouraged to produce. There is an opposite effect of the desired initial effect.
The government should really think strategically. Of course, thinking about providing a short response to the population, these measures are recently ventilated. But you should have a little more strategic and long time care to reduce food prices.
It’s not something to happen in one night. If there are some opportunities to coordinate production costs, it has a better and long-term effect.
P – Products such as meat, eggs and coffee rose to price and intimidating consumers in recent months. Is there any other substance that can be a kind of sort of sort of sort?
LG – resulting in a number of one or another product, the price increase or falls for production. In the egg, for example, there was a heat wave, the value of the feed was very rising, so there was an increase in price. However, it is not one or another product that increases inflation.
All you need to see is a more structure, not only food, but also widespread in other areas. But if you want to shoot some products that do not land next few times, they would be.
P – Should the expected slowdown for the Brazilian economy this year, should then contribute to the peace of food prices?
LG – Yes, yes. Sometimes the production requirement does not follow and the price is growing. Therefore, the interest rate is raised for inflation control. Of course, the interest height is tended to reduce economic activity.
X-ray | Leandro Gilio, 37
The researcher and Insper Agro GLOBAL operates as a professor. The enterprise coordinates the field of trade, geopolitics and food security. It is an economist with a master’s and doctor in the region. He was a researcher in CEPEA / USP and IPEA, as well as a consulting professor at the UFSCAR and the Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock.
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