Last week, the US trade deficit increased a record for $ 131.4 billion in January, because the enterprises are ahead of the President Donald Trump’s Schrodinger tariffs.
American economic data was usually disappointed, but the worsened news about import, especially confused some ANGST. Because of how to measure and calculate the gross domestic product (item to measure double calculation and internal access), the expanded trade deficit helped the Atlanta Fed will be widely watched “Gdpnow“Real-time economic forecast model to a tail part.
2.8 percent contraction The model spit was later revised after -2.4 percent, and then after 1.6 percent after -1.6 percent Latest US Business Numbers. But reading the dirty gdpnow naturally caused a lot Exciting headlines It looked like the United States as it was in front of a short recession.
Here are Thomas Rayan, economic economy in the capital:
A record of a record of $ 131.4 billion in January, a record of a record, a larger growth from a larger growth, and the new country and the product’s tariffs were successful.
. . . Net trading this great drift, now in the data inventory, because there is no increase in inventory, the first quarter of GDP is the most damaged damage. The good news is that this should reverse the reflection as the appropriate inventory of imports in the second quarter, so we forecast our strong Ribaund project in GDP growth.
The main culprit was a really great increase in the US gold imports, because traders wanted to advance potential tariffs. And this is important too When you think economic effects.
The motivation is the same (avoiding tariffs), the economic impact of the actions of gold and other goods is completely different. The vast majority of imports are consumed or used in the production of other items, and gold tends to make non-inert and useless.
TL; DRIVE is that the whole uncertainty is undoubtedly, although economic is paid, the gdpnow model of Atlanta Fed may not be considered securely.
The effect of gold in the trade balance of gold is not easy to find as we are hidden in our golden sticks statistics. In January, the import of goods imports in January $ 36.2 billion in the category of “finished metal forms”, which is more than $ 36.2 billion.
“Unprecedented” is an extreme word, but you can see how extreme of January information is here.
The import of other goods also increased, but increased to a smaller degree. Imports of pharmaceuticals, for example, 5 months a month, but this was only 1.5x from January last year. Imports of passenger cars rose to $ 1 billion, but left down in January last year.
In other words, the bullion was a cartridge in January trading numbers. As David Mericle, Goldman Sachs told the economist:
The majority of expansion in trade deficit in November reflects higher gold imports excluded from GDP because they are not consumed or produced. The details of the trade balance report really rose gold imports contributed to the main part of the increase in imports in January.
If you don’t believe the importance of gold yet let’s look at our trade with Switzerland.
Switzerland is the world’s largest ingots processing and transit center and the world’s largest overall trade center (along with the UK). The US trade deficit with Switzerland exploded to $ 22 billion in January – Trading of US goods with China.
The United States’s textbook information is in December 64.2 tons from 64.2 tons to the United States in the United States, which loaded gold exports in 192.9 tons in 192.9 tons of Switzerland.
To see similar trends in another place, you can access different countries on the above area. For example, in the United States, mainly in the last decade, trade surplus with Australia, but there is an increase in Australia’s gold export In January, it helped to push the trade balance to a negative area.
However, in January, Switzerland seems to be a bigger evidence of how gold will be.
Perhaps the Trumpspession was afraid to see that he was legally predicted, published Atlanta on Friday explain Her gdpnow model and gold glitch:
Although Gdpnow distinguishes gold from other imports, Bureau of Economic Analysis Total net exports, Subagrades in GDP. Copying gold and exports, the increase in the forecast of the GDPNOW’s top line growth and this forecast, which is about 2 percentage points, the forecast to increase contributions.
Top Line growth forecasts also increased today – the standard model -2.4 percent, “golden adjustable” model -0.4 percent, 0.4 percent, before it was released, the model was stronger than the expected model.
Thus, a “golden adjusted” GDP is a 0.4 percent growth forecast. It’s not excellent, but very different from the terrible title number, the Atlanta Fed model is still displayed.
Goldman Sachs’s own gold-regulated GDP forecast for the first quarter was 1.3 percent in a more optimistic way, but the 2025 growth forecast for 2025 “in the decline”.
Behold, if you are interested, the main points of the latest economic update of the Investment Bank, the emphasis of Alphaville below.
– Larger tariffs will give you a greater impetus for consumer prices. In the absence of tariffs, we would expect an annual basic pile inflation to be reduced from 2.65% to 2.1% to 2.1% in January 2025. Our new tariff assumptions suggest that about 3% of about 3% or about 3.3% in the risk scenario.
– Larger tariffs, as well as a disposable income and consumption and consumer expenditures and consumer expenditures are also even more large with the effects of taxes and their financial conditions and uncertainty. Although our previous tariff assumptions increase the growth of the annual GDP, -0.3PP, our new assumptions give the peak of -0.8pp. It would grow up to -1.3pp in the risk scenario.
– In addition to this additional 0.5PP drag, the increase in our larger tariff assumptions, we reduced 2025 Q4 / Q4 GDP growth forecast from 2.2% to 1.2%. This means that GDP growth will be lower than the more potential. In response, we hit the forecast of the unemployment rate to 4.2% to 0.1pp.
– We have increased the probability of a 12-month decline from a bit to 20% to 20%. At this point, we only raised with a limited amount, because we see that politics changed as a basic risk and has a retreat if the White House begins to start negative risks to be more serious. If the risk is guided by our scenario, or the White House provides bad information, even worse information, the risk of decline will increase.
On April 30, we will learn more for the first three months of the year, the appropriate official US GDP assessment.
