Oil markets, on March 3, 2025, experienced a volatile trade between geopolitical tensions and mixed demand signals. April WTI contract 68.13 (as closely as close as 55 ¢), as a result, 67.58 (+ 0.6%), $ 41.07 (+ 0.7%).
Geopolitical factors
The United States creates revenge on revenge strikes against Houthi rebels in Yemen, on the red marine shipping attacks, the disruption of the supply. OPEC + From April 2025, it plans to gradually open the cutting of 5.85 million BPD production.
Tariffs of the Trump administration (25% in Canada / Mexico, 10% in China) requires fear and destruction of economic slowdown.
Fundamental information
WTI, $ 68.37 and $ 67.25, $ 67.11 and 48.7 in the 14-day 14-day RSI, $ 68.37 and $ 67.25. Brent reached $ 71.80 and $ 51.35 and the 50-day MA in RSI, $ 70.80 and $ 70.68.
Technical analysts recorded $ 67.25 (WTI) and $ 70.53 (Brent) and critical support at the level of 68.50 and 72.30. The MACD histogram weakened the speed of Saadiya in both trends.
Regional market points
Asian
Prices found PMI (52.1) in China (52.1) and the strongest in 3 months.
Europe
Ice Brent volumes were above 22% of the 30-day average as traders placed for OPEC + policial turn.
North America
Cushing took 1.8 million barrels of reserves, but WTI faced the pressure from the Permian pipeline.
Capital flow and placement
WISDOMTREE Brent 3x short ETF (3BSR) saw £ 14.1 million (-3.96% nav drops). CFTC data fell from 48,000 contract (-73% YTD), 48,000% YTD), which is the lowest in July 2024.
Market Maker Comment
“Opec + Compensation Cutting The new production plane creates a floor around $ 65, but tariffs can approach $ 70 until the required clarity” – Amena Bekir, KPler.
“Technical figures offer a variety of trade until the WTI definitely reached $ 68.50 resistance or $ 65 support,” – Sprague Energy Technical Group.
Prices are concentrated with the location of 38.6 (+ 9% WOW) as traders evaluated in more than one macro uncertainty in certain ranges, CBOe raw oil variability index (OVX). Increasing the market inability to continue the market for early $ 68, increasing careful behavior compared to the increasing student duration of trade wars.
