Mark Carney and his revitalized liberal party, a comfortable lead on Pierre Poilievre and still opened a conservative campaign, opening a conservative campaign.
If the Election News transferred polling stations in our PPSOS in our polls, CARNEY may stand at the door of the first majority government since the 2015, and the greatest political turn in Canada.
So what happened? This election should need to change the change.
Instead, it becomes a referendum on leadership, especially when Donald Trump and his tariffs have a positive threat.
But if Trump is great, it is not the only force that forms this campaign. In fact, the best issue in the motto of voters is the cost of living or tariffs, but the cost of living. On this front, the competition remains the neck and neck.
In late February, Canadians were supported by the best to manage Trump’s trade tantrums. This uncertainty was not now. Carney carries a 12-point lead over Poilievre. Canada is seen as a more stable hand to lead the Canada with how much more than four-year chaos in the south.
And this perception is poured into a wider view of the leadership who is the best prime minister. Carney now causes Sicievre to 11 points, a wider margin of voting between the two sides between the two parties intending to vote. Canadians cannot realize the subtle points of the central banking, but they look comfortable with a pedigree.
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Of course, Carney has defilors. But the voters do not care. Liberals build acceleration and increase their choice of new winners.
The most clear signal? A sharp drop in the number of Canadians saying it is time for a change.
As a political polkster in about 40 years, I found this number the best barometer of a campaign. When it happens, the government has difficulty. When it falls, the status quo returns to the game. Two months ago, 78 percent of voters said the government’s change was the time. Today, this number is reduced to 54 percent. Meanwhile, 42 percent, CARNEY liberals are worthy of re-election, almost exactly what we see with voice support, he said. The mood has changed and liberals are now on top.
But we must progress.
Return to old clichés is charming: politics moves fast, a week a lifetime, everything can happen. All are true. But we do not need clichés. We have data.
The data is not yet to be the number one issue for Canadians. Is still convenient. Nine dollar grapes and sky-high mortgages (high mortgages and rents remain more pressure than tariff battles or sovereignty threats.
But how do we reconcile? If the voters guarded the night, why did the Trump have such a certain force? The answer is in the emotional boot of both. When living expenditures are deeply, the return of Trump, especially in the economic future of Canada, is a sense of relevance and unpredictability. Not to pay attention to voters trading and tariffs. This Trump is wild that can worsen everything.
This is where the Liberals are shining. They lead the conservatives with 40 points to manage the Trump file. Right, 40 points.
Favorurity is still to seize. The cost of living, liberals and conservatives are closed. If the Trump story returns the center stage of fading or viability and matching, conservatives can still be a way to victory. Narrow, but real.
And then there is Ontario. Despite the national leadership, the conservatives in the Liberals Ontario are just four points. In 905, the majority of the government, Carney and Poilievre, which are now a majority of devices. This means that the national lead may be wrong. Conservatives closes the gap in Ontario and took a very different result if it goes ahead in 905.
So yes, the liberals earn the week. They also win the narrative. However, campaigns are not earned in the opening lap. We won on the finish line.
If we learned something from Canadian policy, these voters sometimes laugh with politely in Frontrunner. Before weighing the carpet from the bottom.
Darrell Bricker, IPSOS is a global CEO for public affairs.
