Fernando Canzian
Sao Paulo, SP (Folhapress)
The two largest economies in the world protect the explosive trajectories to increase public debts.
The Americans are more than 100% of GDP (gross domestic product) and China will reach this brand at the end of this year. In both, there was a strong recent acceleration with a high trend.
The rest of the world will be pressured to maintain interest rates to fund interest rates for central banks for the central banks, such as Brazil – two giant, will make money from the world to roll the debts.
In April, Fitch rankings for A + A + A. AAA to AAA to AAA A “A” AAA “AAA” AAA “” AAA “, it must be the cost of procrastination costs.
China has quickly fixed it. The total debt in the first quarter (governments, companies and families) increased by $ 3.5 trillion. According to the IUF (International Finance Institute), China responded to $ 2 trillion. In 2019, China’s public debt accounted for 60% of GDP, it is 93%.
Chinese debts have a decision to stimulate the domestic demand a few years ago. This was strengthened by the United States with the United States, which could limit China’s US -1% to US US -1%. Another factor was the growing shortage of regional governments.
About 80% of local government revenues come to real estate developments with land supply from renting. Delvent, officials allowed regional governments to give headings in the market and expand the debt.
China is also growing in financial deficit (income). This year, GDP must reach 8.5% – between 2015 and 2019, an average of 2020 and 2024 to 2020 and more than 3%. This will have larger riles that will expand the country’s debt.
The situation in the United States is not better. Donald Trump’s recently promises to expand tax discounts (in the first government), according to the forecasts of the Congress Budget department, the scenarios may worsen the scenarios if more tariffs and other measures can not pay.
It is unrealistic to compensate income losses with tax deductions, and the tax foundation calculations will lift more ratios and less costs in the DoGe.
In order to finance income, the United States must give more titles, increase interest rates around the world – before the economy, to attract investors to roll their debts, they have to pay a prize above so much to attract investors to roll. Otherwise, the US headers will prefer.
The U.S. growth is also checked. Because the country does not grow to calculate the GDP debt / GDP ratio, the growth of debt growth, increases the debt, increases the level of economy.
“If the United States is better than a recession than a recession, we will be lucky.
The world’s lowest price and basic reserve currency have a condition of the “American exclusive” financial privilege and the main reserve currency, the dollar – Tariffs and international diplomacy threatened with the policy of Trump.
“It will bring a more anxious dynamic to the United States, because their names will be asked whether it is an increasingly safe shelter,” he says.
Fitch Ratings Director Ed Parker said the world includes “a new era of global debt” in defense, scholarships and health. America will grow, in his opinion and inflation, will be filled with the impact of imported products.
“This means that it should increase interest rates for the financing of the United States,” he says. As a result, countries like Brazil (the third largest interest in the world) should protect high prices to attract investors in the United States.
Cathy Hepworth, the CEO of PGIM, which invested in $ 1.3 trillion around the world, said the global economy will bring significant changes to the ongoing change with us and China.
“The growing importance of China should not be assessed in the world economy and the results of the American exception,” he says.
